The system of leading indicators of the development of national industry: a conceptual approach

Industrialization, which is currently taking place in the world under new technological conditions, guarantees successful economic development. In this regard, analysts, entrepreneurs, government officials, politicians at local and national levels are interested timely reliable information about state prospects for development of industry. To get signals changes activity near future, economists use leading indicators – dynamic data series that demonstrate a fairly stable connection with basic macroeconomic cycle particular country. However, peculiarities development, each has to find its own solutions subject area. The article focuses on industry objectives work generalize accumulated experience field short-term forecasting based dynamics have industrial production, substantiate recommendations regarding possibilities their Ukraine. As result generalization using indicators, considering specifics, two working hypotheses were suggested research process. first one fact (a) when turning points industry, it necessary focus general specific countries main partners Ukraine, especially those goods group exported; (b) list candidate should include energy prices, into account significant dependence production hydrocarbon imports; (c) addition real money supply, value added influenced by other monetary factors, namely hryvnia exchange rate dollar index US dollar, explained openness economy, small size, specialization export raw materials import goods, create products high added. For further verification hypothesis, offered divide relevant four groups: results enterprise surveys, financial enterprises, socio-economic indicators. At same time, availability promptness updating (at least quarterly) key condition inclusion selection candidates. second hypothesis proposed can serve as ones provide early created order verify practice, database be used predict gross perform mathematical calculations (build quantitative dependencies selected time lag), integrate individual composite solving these problems.